1. Kei te huri haere te whakakorenga o te "utu hiko wā-whakamahi" e hangai ana ki ngā kaupapa here. I te mutunga o te tau 2025, i whakaputa te National Development and Reform Commission me te National Energy Administration i te "Pānui mō te Mahi Pai i te Waitohu me te Whakatutuki i ngā Kirimana Hiko Wā-waenga me te Wā-roa mō te tau 2026" me ngā "Ture Taketake mō te Mākete Hiko Wā-waenga me te Wā-roa", e rua i kī mārama:
Ko te tikanga, kāore ngā kaiuru tika o te mākete e whakatinana i te utu hiko mō te wā e whakamahia ana kua whakaritea e te kāwanatanga.
Whakapai ake i te tikanga utu hiko mō te wā waenga me te wā roa. Me whakarite e ngā rohe katoa te hononga i waenga i te kaupapa here utu hiko mō te wā tino nui me te wā roa o te whakamahinga me te utu hiko mō te tauwhitinga mākete. Ko te tikanga, kāore ngā kaiuru mākete tika e whai kawenga ki te utu hiko mō te wā e whakamahia ana e te kāwanatanga. E akiakihia ana ngā rōpū e rua ki ngā kirimana wā waenga me te wā roa ki te haina i ngā whakaaetanga e aro ana ki te tuku mākete.
Mō ngā hinonga pakihi e whai wāhi tika ana ki ngā whakawhitiwhitinga mākete, kāore he whakaritenga hangai mō te taumata me te wā o te utu hiko mō te wā e whakamahia ana. Mō ngā kaiwhakamahi hoko hiko a te kaiwhakahaere whatunga, ka whakarite te tari utu a te kāwanatanga, ka arotau hoki i te wehenga o ngā wā pīka me ngā wā kore pīka me te ōwehenga piki me te heke o te utu i runga i te taumata utu mākete tū.
I muri mai, i roto i ngā taipitopito whakatinanatanga o ngā tauwhitinga wā-waenga me ngā tauwhitinga wā-roa mō te tau 2026 i ngā kawanatanga o Liaoning, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Henan, me Shanxi, i mārama hoki te kī kāore te taumata me te wā o ngā utu hiko wā-whakamahi e whakaritea hangai mō ngā hinonga pakihi e whai wāhi tika ana ki ngā tauwhitinga mākete. Ehara i te mea ka ngaro ngā utu hiko wā-whakamahi, engari kua rerekē te tikanga whakatū – mai i te "utu kāwanatanga" ki te "utu mākete". I raro i te awe o ngā whanaungatanga tuku me te tono hiko me ngā tauwhitinga e aro ana ki te mākete, ka hangaia ngā utu hiko tihi, noa, me waho o te tihi i runga i te tuku me te tono mākete, ā, ka whakaata tika ake ngā piki me ngā heke o te utu hiko i ngā āhuatanga mākete tūturu.
Heoi anō, e rua ngā wero nui kua puta mai i te utu hiko mō te wā-whakamahinga (TOU) e hangai ana ki te mākete ki te tauira "peak-valley arbitrage" o ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao ahumahi me te arumoni tuku iho.
He pakari te rautaki wā, ā, he uaua ki te taurite i te hiahia hiko. He maha ngā wā ka whakahaerehia e ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao tuku iho te utu me te tuku i te wā pumau, ā, he uaua ki te hono atu ki te pihi whakapaunga hiko tuturu a ngā kaiwhakamahi. Ina koa i roto i te horopaki "whakaputa hiko + penapena pūngao", ko te kore o ngā āheinga whakarerekētanga ngāwari ka arahi ngāwari ki te iti o te whakamahinga rokiroki pūngao, ki te kore rānei e tutuki te hiahia hiko.
2) Ka kaha ake te piki me te heke o te utu hiko, ka uaua ake te whakatau i ngā whakaritenga. Nā te hononga i waenga i te utu hiko i te wā e whakamahia ana me te mākete tū, ka rerekē pea ngā utu hiko i ia hāora, i ia 15 meneti rānei, ā, ka eke ngā utu hiko teitei ki runga ake i te 1 yuan/kWh. I ngā wā o te whakaputanga hiko photovoltaic teitei, ka puta pea ngā utu hiko kino. He uaua ki ngā rautaki pumau tuku iho te urutau ki tētahi taiao utu hiko uaua. Nō reira, i raro i te tikanga hou o te mākete hiko, me pēhea te rapu i ngā uara hou mō te rokiroki pūngao ahumahi me te arumoni?
II. Mai i te "Peak-Valley Arbitrage" ki te "Microgrid Balancer" E whakaatu ana ngā wheako o ngā mākete hiko kua pakeke i Ūropi, ko te teitei ake o te taumata hokohoko, ko te whānui ake o ngā horopaki tono, ā, ko te nui ake o te uara o ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao. Kei te whanake haere tā rātou mahi mai i te "taputapu peak-valley arbitrage" māmā ki te "kaitaurite atamai mō ngā photovoltaic tohatoha me ngā microgrid rokiroki pūngao".
1. Pōrana: Kua heke te pire hiko toharite mō ngā kaiwhakamahi mā te 50%, ā, kua piki ake ngā whiwhinga hiko photovoltaic (PV) mā te neke atu i te 200%! Mai i te tau 2025, kua whakatinanahia e te Polish Electricity Exchange te utu hiko hihiri, me te piki haere o ngā utu i te wā tūturu. I tāutahia e tētahi kaiwhakamahi kāinga i Warsaw, te tāone nui, tētahi pūnaha rokiroki hiko Siggy kua rite ki ngā rautaki whakaritenga AI, hei whakatū i tētahi whatunga iti rokiroki PV atamai. I te wā utu hiko pumau, ko te utu whāngai PV he 0.22–0.44 zlotys ia kWh anake. Whai muri i te huri ki te utu hiko hihiri me te whakauru i te pūnaha rokiroki PV atamai, mā roto i ngā rautaki rokiroki hiko me te whakaritenga atamai, ka taea te "rokiroki hiko" i ngā wā utu iti me te "tuku" i ngā wā utu nui, ka tutuki ai ngā penapena utu hiko me te whakanui ake i ngā whiwhinga. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga whakahaere kotahi tau kua heke te utu hoko hiko a te kaiwhakamahi ki te tata ki te 0.55 zlotys ia kWh, he hekenga tata ki te 50%; Kua piki ake te utu whāngai PV toharite ki te 1.09 zlotys ia kWh, kua piki ake ngā whiwhinga moni mā te 220%-300%, ā, kua piki ake te reiti kai-whaiaro mā te neke atu i te 200%.
2. Huitene: Ka whakaitihia e ngā pūnaha PV-ESS atamai ngā pire hiko a ngā kaiwhakamahi mā te toharite o te 52.7%! Ahakoa he take takitahi pea te kaupapa kotahi i Pōrana, he whānui ake te whakaatu a ngā raraunga tatauranga mai i te neke atu i te 2,500 kaupapa i Huitene. Nō nā tata nei, i whakahaerehia e Siger New Energy tētahi tātaritanga pūnaha o ngā raraunga whakahaere mai i te neke atu i te 2,500 kaupapa PV-ESS atamai i Huitene, ā, i kitea kua heke ngā pire hiko a ngā kaiwhakamahi mā te toharite o te 70.3%! E whā ngā rohe e wehea ana te mākete hiko o Huitene (SE1-SE4) i runga i te hanganga whakahaere whatunga, ā, e whā ngā rohe e whā e tohatohahia ana e ngā kaupapa motuhake e 2,500. Ka whakarārangihia ngā kaiwhakamahi katoa mai i te moni whiwhi tūturu iti rawa ki te moni whiwhi teitei rawa, e whakaaturia ana i te pikitia i raro nei.
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga ko te whakahekenga toharite o ngā pire hiko mō ngā kaiwhakamahi he 70.3%, me te whakahekenga toharite o te 52.7%. Ehara tēnei rerekētanga i te mea nā te pokanoa o ngā tāngata takitahi, engari nā te mea kua eke ētahi kaiwhakamahi i ngā rohe he nui ake te pikinga o ngā utu hiko ki ngā hokinga penapena teitei ake.
1. Te tuku hiko atamai e hangai ana ki te AI: Kāore e taea te whakatutuki i te mārama ki ngā utu hiko me te whakamahinga hiko hei whakaiti i ngā utu me te whakapai ake i te whai huatanga i roto i te taiao utu hiko hihiri me te kore he whakamanatanga hohonu o te hangarau AI. Ka tutuki i te pūnaha photovoltaic atamai me te pūnaha rokiroki pūngao ngā āheinga matua e whai ake nei mā te whakakotahitanga maha-tauira me te ako whakapakari:
1) Te Ako i te Tātaritanga Utaina: Te ako tonu i ngā āhuatanga o te whakamahinga hiko o ia kaupapa, te tautuhi i ngā tihi kawenga, ngā tauira whakamahinga hiko i te pō, ngā rerekētanga i waenga i ngā rā wiki me ngā hararei, me ētahi atu, hei hanga i tētahi tātaritanga kawenga tino whaiaro.
2) Te matapae i te whakaputanga hiko photovoltaic: Whakakotahitia ngā raraunga huarere hei matapae tika i te putanga photovoltaic;
3) Matapae i te au o te utu hiko: Matapae i ngā piki me ngā heke o te utu hiko i runga i ngā raraunga mākete, ā, whakawhanake i ngā rautaki utu me te tuku hiko tino pai;
4) Te arotau hurihuri me ngā tautuhinga ngāwari: Te whakamahi i tētahi rautaki whakakotahi maha-tauira, te whakakotahi i te matapae huarere me te whakatauira whanonga kawenga, me te hanga i ngā ara whakaritenga pai mā te ako whakapakari me te whakaata tinana; i te wā kotahi, te tautoko i ngā whakatikatika rautaki o ia rā me te whakahohe i te whakaritenga whaiaro i runga i ngā manakohanga a te kaiwhakamahi. I te heke mai, i te mea kei te whanake tonu ngā tauira AI me te arotau tonu i ngā rautaki rauropi, ka neke ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic me te pūngao mai i te "whakamahinga" ki te "whakamahinga pai", ka āwhina i te tini o ngā kaiwhakamahi ki te whakatutuki i te whakamahinga pūngao atamai pono me ngā painga mō te wā roa.
IV. Te Whatunga Poto Atamai me te Rokiroki Pūngao, e Whakamana ana i ngā Wheketere Kore-Waro! E whakaatu mārama ana te Mahere Tau Rima 15 o Haina i te whanaketanga o ngā rauemi pūngao tohatoha me te hanganga o ngā wheketere me ngā papa kore-waro. I te Hakihea 2025, i panuitia ngātahitia e te Komihana Whakawhanake me te Whakahoutanga ā-Motu, te Manatū Ahumahi me te Hangarau Mōhiohio, me te Whakahaere Pūngao ā-Motu he 52 ngā papa kore-waro taumata-motu. I te Hanuere 2026, i whakaputaina e te Manatū Ahumahi me te Hangarau Mōhiohio me ētahi atu tari e whā ngā "Whakaaro Arataki mō te Whakahaere i te Hanganga o ngā Wheketere Kore-Waro," e whakaaro ana kia whakatipuhia, kia hangaia hoki he puranga wheketere kore-waro i roto i ngā ahumahi nui e whitu, tae atu ki ngā photovoltaics, ngā pākahiko lithium, me ngā motuka, i te tau 2027; ā, ka whānui ki te 12 ngā ahumahi nui i te tau 2030. Ka taea te matapae ko ngā wheketere me ngā papa kore-waro e aro ana ki te "kawenga hiko" ka noho hei tētahi o ngā āhuatanga matua mō te pūngao hou i te heke mai. Mā ngā tauira pēnei i te hononga hiko matomato tika me ngā whatunga iti atamai ka puta he whai wāhitanga whanaketanga nui, ā, ka noho hei tauira whanaketanga nui mō te pūngao hou. I raro i ēnei horopaki me ngā tauira, he tino rite ā rātou tono matua ki ērā o ngā kaiwhakamahi i Pōrana me Huitene: te whakatutuki i ngā utu hiko tino pai i roto i te taiao utu hiko hihiri e aro nui ana ki te mākete. E whakaatu ana ngā wheako mai i ngā mākete o tāwāhi ka taea e ngā whatunga iti photovoltaic me te rokiroki pūngao atamai te whakaiti i ngā utu hiko a ngā kaiwhakamahi me te whakanui ake i ngā hokinga mai o ngā kaupapa photovoltaic; heoi anō, ko te nui ake o te pikinga o ngā utu hiko, ko te pai ake o ngā hua whakatinanatanga! I tēnei wā, neke atu i te 17,000 ngā teihana hiko puta noa i te ao kua tango i ngā tauira AI, e kapi ana i ngā horopaki urunga utu hiko hihiri i roto i te 47 whenua, e hanga ana i tētahi pūnaha tono AI maha-taumata me te whakatinanatanga.
Whakamutunga
Poroporoaki ki te utu hiko wā-whakamahinga pumau e hangai ana ki te kaupapa here pumau, me te nau mai ki te wā o te utu hiko e aro ana ki te mākete me te hihiri. Ehara i te mutunga o te uara o ngā pūnaha rokiroki hiko photovoltaic (PV) me te pūngao tēnei, engari ko te tīmatanga tūturu o te wā pūngao atamai. Mā te whakaritenga AI me te whakaritenga whatunga iti, kei te whanake haere ngā pūnaha rokiroki hiko me te pūngao mai i ngā "pūrere rokiroki pūngao" noa iho ki ngā "kaitaurite pūngao atamai", e hopu ana i te uara i waenga i ngā piki me te heke mai mā roto i ngā huringa.
Wā tuku: Hanuere-23-2026